Subject: the meaning of Reference Scenario Posted: 8/12/2021 Viewed: 2431 times
I would like to ask about the specific role of the reference scenario. Is there any difference in its scenario setting, such as How is the population growth rate set?
Ms. Anne Hereford
Subject: Re: the meaning of Reference Scenario Posted: 10/26/2021 Viewed: 2066 times
I often tell people to think of the Reference Scenario as the Business as Usual case--what happens if there's no change in policy and the watershed progresses along the path its already on. (This doesn't necessarily mean the population doesn't change or that climate doesn't change. Simply that there's no intervention.) It's meant to be a comparison against other scenarios. Often, the population growth rate is the same from the Reference Scenario and for other scenarios--but it will depend on what you're studying. If you want to know the water supply differences between a 2% growth rate and a 5% growth rate, your reference scenario might have a 5% growth rate and your "free contraception for all" scenario might have a 2% growth rate. Keeping everything else the same would allow you to see the potential effects of a change in population growth.