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User Forum

All Topics | Topic "High unmet demand in current accounts than expansion scenarios"
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Author Message
Mrs. Nigatu Mersha

Subject: High unmet demand in current accounts than expansion scenarios   
Posted: 7/10/2017 Viewed: 2483 times
Dear All,

I am running various Irrigation expansion future scenarios (2016-2040). However, as opposed to the expected result, a significantly high unmet-demand was observed in the current accounts (2015) than the later years (simulation period) which actually have a remarkable demand rise. I tried to check my data input and scenario set-ups but couldn't figure out where the error lies. Could anyone advise me on what to do/check please? To say it in short the unmet demand in 2015 is much higher than that in 2040 (where demand reaches its peak) for example.

Thank you.
Ms. Stephanie Galaitsi

Subject: Re: High unmet demand in current accounts than expansion scenarios   
Posted: 7/19/2017 Viewed: 2473 times
Dear Nigatu,

Are you only looking at unmet demand in the catchments (for the irrigation) or might there be other unmet demand in your system?

My guess is that you have real climate data for the Current Account year (2015), and you have projections for the scenarios (2016-2040). I would compare the precipitation and temperature data for your Current Account year and for your future projections, and make sure that they are either similar (if you're examining a situation without climate change) or reflecting the climate change trends projected for your area. Remember that some places are actually projected to become cooler, with more precipitation, though I would be surprised if it would be enough to offset irrigation expansion.

My second guess has to do with whether you're modeling the irrigation expansion in a way that WEAP can understand. How are you modeling the expansion?



Topic "High unmet demand in current accounts than expansion scenarios"